There’s simply no denying that I have been ICE cold through the first two weeks of the College Football season. So much so, that I have gone back to the process from last season that, although a little tedious, was quite profitable. So, hand up, the picks so far haven’t been great; but don’t jump off the bandwagon just yet. I’m about to get hot and this is about to be a GREAT week of picking some pigskin.
Top-25 Rankings
BREAKDOWNS
GAME 1 – Cincinnati Bearcats (#8) at Indiana Hoosiers – 12:00 PM
Betting Lines: CIN -4, o/u 50
First Two Games:
Cincinnati – Win 49-14 vs Miami (Ohio), Win 42-7 vs Murray State
Indiana – Loss 34-6 at Iowa (#18), Win 56-14 vs Idaho
Key Matchups:
QB
CIN – Desmond Ridder – 34/47, 538 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT, 10 Rush Attempts, 27 Yards, 1 TD
IND – Michael Penix Jr – 25/47, 224 Yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 1 Rush TD
RB
CIN – Jerome Ford – 30 Carries, 234 yards (7.8 avg), 4 TD
IND – Stephen Carr – 41/175 yards, 1 TD
WR1
CIN – Tyler Scott – 5 Receptions, 155 Yards, 2 TD
IND – Ty Fryfogle – 10 Rec, 113 Yards, 1 TD
DEF
CIN – 3 Sacks, 3 Interceptions, 2 Fumble Recoveries
IND – 4 Sacks, 0 INT, 3 Fumble Recoveries
NOTES
- Cincinnati untested, but Indiana got absolutely dominated by Iowa (a good team, but still not a positive sign)
- QB’s – Ridder (CIN) has looked good and protected the ball well, Penix Jr (IND) got off to a slow start with 3 INT’s vs Iowa and hasn’t been great
- Slight RB advantage to CIN
- Both teams have solid defenses, Indiana may struggle in the pass game and be forced to run the ball
PICK(s):
Cincinnati -4
UNDER 50
GAME 2 – Virginia Tech Hokies (#15) at West Virginia Mountaineers – 12:00 PM
BETTING LINES – WVU -3, o/u 50.5
FIRST TWO GAMES
VT – Win 17-10 vs (#10) UNC, Win 35-14 vs Middle Tennessee
WVU – Loss 30-24 at Maryland, Win 66-0 vs Long Island University
KEY MATCHUPS
QB
VT – Braxton Burmeister – 26/43, 311 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 94 Rush Yards, 1 TD
WVU – Jarret Doege – 38/62, 536 Yards, 4 TD, 2 INT
WR
VT – Tre Turner – 8 Rec, 131 Yards
WVU – Four with 97+ rec yds
DEF
VT – 9 Sacks, 4 INT, 3 Forced Fumbles
WVU – 4 Sacks, 2 Fumble Recoveries
NOTES
- The Battle for the “Black Diamond” Trophy for first time since 2017
- Each team faced a good test in week 1 – VT passed, WVU failed
- Virginia Tech’s defense has looked much better than WVU’s through two games
- VT lost TE James Mitchell for season with knee injury
- Game will likely come down to the West Virginia depth at WR against Tech’s solid secondary
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PICK
Virginia Tech +3
GAME 3 – Auburn Tigers (#22) at Penn State Nittany Lions (#10) – 7:30 PM
BETTING LINES – PSU -5, o/u 53
FIRST TWO GAMES
AUB – Win 60-10 vs Akron, Win 62-0 vs Alabama State
PSU – Win 16-10 at (#12) Wisconsin, Win 44-13 vs Ball State
KEY MATCHUPS
QB
AUB – Bo Nix – 29/39 (74.4%), 383 Yards, 5 TD, 0 INT
PSU – Sean Clifford – 39/62, 477 Yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 17 Rushes, 71 Yards, 1 TD
RB
AUB – Jarquez Hunter – 17 Rushes, 257 Yards (15.1 avg), 2 TD
PSU – Noah Cain – 28 Rushes, 117 Yards, 2 TD, 8 Receptions, 57 Yards
WR
AUB – Spread out – Top #’s are – Demetris Robertson – 6/89 yards, 2 TD
PSU – Jahan Dotson & Parker Washington – 10 Rec, 167 Yards, 2 TD & 10 Rec, 104 Yards
DEF
AUB – 8 Sacks, 1 INT, 1 Fumble Recovery
PSU – 3 Sacks, 4 INT, 1 Fumble Recovery
NOTES
- The Whiteout Game returns in Primetime in Happy Valley
- No real opponents yet for Auburn, Penn State with a really good win vs #12 Wisconsin
- Advantage at RB for Auburn with Jarquez Hunter and Tank Bigsby
- Advantage at WR for PSU
- Auburn better D-Line, Penn State better secondary
- Bo Nix yet to throw an INT, but had more INT than TD last season, PSU will be a big test
- HUGE home field advantage for Penn State
- With both teams looking pretty close on paper, Penn State having a big win under their belts already and playing at home will be key factors
PICK
Penn State -5
GAME 4 – Arizona State Sun Devils (#19) at BYU Cougars (#23) – 10:15 PM
BETTING LINES – ASU -3.5, o/u 51.5
FIRST TWO GAMES
ASU – Win 41-14 vs Southern Utah, Win 37-10 vs UNLV
BYU – Win 24-16 vs Arizona, Win 26-17 vs (#21) Utah
KEY MATCHUPS
QB
ASU – Jayden Daniels – 30/41, 307 Yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 19 Rushes, 165 Yards (Leads Team)
BYU – Jaren Hall – 36/58, 347 Yards, 5 TD, 0 INT, 13 Rushes, 128 Yards
RB
ASU – Rachaad White – 29 rushes, 148 yards, 4 TD, 6 Receptions, 52 Yards
BYU – Tyler Allgeir – 44 rushes, 196 yards, 1 TD
WR
ASU – 6 Players between 52 & 65 reception yards
BYU – Neil Pau’u – 11 Receptions, 145 Yards, 3 TD
DEF
ASU – 7 Sacks, 3 INT, 1 Fumble Recovery
BYU – 6 Sacks, 2 INT, 1 Fumble Recovery
NOTES
- One of just three games this week between teams both ranked inside top-25
- ASU’s first road game of the year, BYU has a good crowd
- Both teams 2-0, but BYU has had a much tougher schedule so far
- Both teams have mobile QB’s (slight edge to BYU at the actual QB position though)
- ASU slight edge at RB
- ASU spreads the ball out to their WR’s, but BYU has the best individual WR on the field (Pau’u)
- Both defenses have put up strong numbers, but BYU vs tougher opponents
PICK
BYU +3.5
RECAP
Picks
Cincinnati -4
CIN/IND UNDER 50
Virginia Tech +3
Penn State -5
BYU +3.5
Moneyline Parlay
Alabama + Coastal Carolina + UCLA + Oklahoma + Iowa
Odds = 2.01
Possible Upset
Michigan State def. (#24) Miami
Odds: 3.03
