AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday January 24th – 6:40 pm EST Kickoff
Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO

BETTING LINES

TEAM RECORDS

BUFFALO
Overall: 15-3 (13-3 Regular Season)
Road: 6-2
Against-the-Spread: 12-6

KANSAS CITY
Overall: 15-2 (14-2 Regular Season)
Home: 7-2
Against-the-Spread: 7-10

HEAD-TO-HEAD
KC def. BUF 26-17 in Week 6

KEY PLAYERS & TRENDS

  • The Chiefs are the 11th defending Super Bowl champion to host a conference championship (previous teams are 9-1)
  • Each of the Chiefs last 8 wins have been by 6 points or fewer, the longest such streak in NFL history
  • Josh Allen’s fewest pass yards (122) and lowest comp pct (51.9) in a game this season came against the Chiefs in Week 6
  • Since 2017, the Bills have allowed 18.0 PPG vs Chiefs, the fewest by any team to play 2+ games vs KC in that span
  • Travis Kelce has fewer than 70 receiving yards in each of 4 career games vs the Bills
  • This is the third playoff game between the top-two players in receiving yards that season (Diggs & Kelce). The player who ranked 2nd won both previous matchups
  • The Bills have dropped back to pass 73% of the time this postseason; only one team has ever reached a conference title game passing more often — the 2015 Patriots (83%)
  • Buffalo won last week with just 32 rushing yards — the fourth fewest ever in a playoff win; and Josh Allen currently leads the team on the ground with 57 yards over two postseason games.
  • The Bills averaged 64.0 rushing yards per game this season, fewer than all but one team to ever reach the Super Bowl
  • The Chiefs are aiming to become the first repeat Super Bowl champs since the 2003-04 Patriots, ending the longest stretch in NFL history without a repeat champion
  • Chiefs are the 12th defending Super Bowl champion to host a conference championship, and the prior 11 teams went 10-1
  • The Chiefs are 1-8 against the spread in their past nine games, and they’re 0-5 against the spread in their past five at home

PREDICTION

It looks as though Patrick Mahomes is fully cleared to play, so regardless of whether he is 100 percent or not, we have another juicy QB matchup awaiting on Sunday night.

Looking back at the game earlier in the season seems like a good place to start, but you can basically throw that game out the window. Not only were the Bills being moved around due to the Titans’ COVID situation, they play a total different defense now than in week 6. For example, in that game the Chiefs had just one pass play of more than 22 yards, but gouged the Bills’ Run-D for 245 yards. Doesn’t seem like the way either team will play this one, the ex-factor being status of Mahomes’ toe and, well, his brain.

Despite the incredible run the Chiefs are on (and look like they will be on for years to come), they are just 1-8 against-the-spread and haven’t played a complete game in weeks, not winning by more than 6 points during that stretch. The Bills are 12-6 against-the-spread this season and play the type of game that could give the Chiefs fits. If I had to pick an outright winner I would certainly lean towards the Chiefs, but I’m taking the Bills to cover the spread. In terms of points I definitely lean the under, but don’t want to root for a low-scoring game with these dynamic offenses on the field.

OFFICIAL PICK

BUFFALO BILLS +3

Leave your thoughts here!