Course: The Plantation Course
Location: Kapalua, Hawaii
Par: 73
Yardage: 7596 Yards
Cut: None
Field: 42 Players
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas (-14, in playoff over Patrick Reed)

THE SHEET
Since it’s a new year, I will explain “The Sheet” and how I come up with these rankings.


Odds:1 = Odds to win outright, ie Dustin Johnson is 6:1 this week so a $1 bet would net $6
Recent SG & Results = Strokes Gained (Total)* from each event played in the past six weeks, added together to produce a final SG number. The next few columns are the actual results from those events.
Tourney SG & Results = Same as above, but from the past five iterations of this weeks event. If the tournament is being held at a different course, these numbers will not go into the final rankings (due to irrelevancy) but will still be shown on the sheet
Form Rank = Ranking of the players in the field by Recent Strokes Gained
Course Rank = Ranking of the players in the field by Course SG
Stats Rank = Ranking of the players in the field based on course-specific categories (done through FantasyNational.com)
Sim Rank = Ranking of the players in the field from the “Simulator” on FantasyNational.com (Not Available this week)
Overall = Odds Rank + Form Rank + Course Rank + Stats Rank + Sim Rank/5 gives an average number of the ranked categories, which I then put in order to give me my final Overall rankings
+/- from Odds = Difference between my final rankings and the bookmakers odds ranking of the field. Good way to determine value bets

*Explanation of Strokes Gained from PGATour.com
Strokes gained: total simply compares a player’s score to the field average. For example, a player will gain three strokes on the field if he shoots 69 on a day when the field averages 72. A player who shoots 74 on that day loses two strokes to the field

My Top Picks This Week

1st: Dustin Johnson (6/1 Odds)

Top 3: + Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm (7/1 and 8/1)

Top 5: + Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau (16:1 and 25:1)

Top 10

Typically I will also post Matchups to bet on and DraftKings players at each price point to target. With such a small field this week and very limited recent play, I will save my money for the future and just bet on outright winners. Check back in for more next week!

Teeing Off 2021 PGA Tour Season Totals
Three Events
Winners from Top Pick: 0
From Top 5: 0
From Top 10: 0

Matchups in 2021 Season
4-1-1

Leave your thoughts here!