Course: Silverado Resort & Spa – North Course
Location: Napa, California
Par: 72
Yardage: 7166 Yards
Cut: Top 65 and Ties after Round 2
Field: 156 Players
Defending Champion: Cameron Champ

THE SHEET
(A collection of data used to predict the most likely outcomes for each weeks event)
Since it’s a new season, I will explain “The Sheet” and how I come up with these rankings.


Odds:1 = Odds to win outright, ie Harold Varner III is 29:1 this week so a $1 bet would net $29
Recent SG & Results = Strokes Gained (Total)* from each event played in the past six weeks, added together to produce a final SG number. The next few columns are the actual results from those events (this week there are only five results because no one in this weeks field played in last weeks Tour Championship)
Course SG & Results = Same as above, but from the past five iterations of this weeks event. If the tournament is being held at a different course, these numbers will not go into the final rankings (due to irrelevancy) but will still be shown on the sheet
Form Rank = Ranking of the players in the field by Recent Strokes Gained
Course Rank = Ranking of the players in the field by Course SG
Stats Rank = Ranking of the players in the field based on course-specific categories (done through FantasyNational.com)
Sim Rank = Ranking of the players in the field from the “Simulator” on FantasyNational.com
Overall = Form Rank + Course Rank + Stats Rank + Sim Rank/4 gives an average number of the ranked categories, which I then put in order to give me my final Overall rankings
+/- from Odds = Difference between my final rankings and the bookmakers odds ranking of the field. Good way to determine value bets

*Explanation of Strokes Gained from PGATour.com
Strokes gained: total simply compares a player’s score to the field average. For example, a player will gain three strokes on the field if he shoots 69 on a day when the field averages 72. A player who shoots 74 on that day loses two strokes to the field

My Top 5 This Week (+ Odds to Win)
1 – Harold Varner III (+2900)
2 – Chez Reavie (+3500)
3 – Cameron Davis (+3500)
4 – Adam Schenk (+10000)
5 – Shane Lowry (+2600)
Unless otherwise noted, I will place 0.5 Units on each of my Top-5 Players to Win outright, and 1 full unit on each of my head-to-head matchups. For the 2021 Season I will be tracking units as well as my overall records


My Top-5 Last Week (BMW Championship; No bets on Tour Championship)
1st, 2nd, 25th, 25th, 25th
2020 Season
SIX outright wins in 18 events

Matchups This Week
Cameron Davis vs Keegan Bradley
Shane Lowry vs Sergio Garcia
Match-ups in 2020 Season: 32-22 (59% Win Rate)

DraftKings Best Value Targets
Elite ValueDK Price
Shane Lowry – $10200
Brendan Steele – $10000

High-End Value
Harold Varner III – $9100
Cameron Davis – $8900

Second-Tier Value
Will Gordon – $8200
Mark Hubbard – $8100

Mid-Level Value
Talor Gooch – $7300
Adam Schenk – $6900

Bargain Value
Chris Baker – $6400
Johnson Wagner – $6300

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