Course: Muirfield Village
Length: 7392 Yards
Par: 72
Course Difficulty: 30th of 51 Courses in 2018
Field: 120 players
Cut: Top 70 & Ties After 36 Holes

Any time you can get Tiger and Jack on the same premises, it’s bound to be a good week.

I digress. We’re at a great spot in the PGA Tour calendar. Two majors down, two to go, and some great tournaments in between. This weeks tournament, “The Memorial” continues a five-week stretch in which the Tour goes from Bethpage Black, to Colonial, to Muirfield Village, to Hamilton G&CC (7th Ranked Course in Canada) and last but certainly not least Pebble Beach. Not too shabby.

One week at a time though. Jack’s place, built in his hometown of Dublin, Ohio opened in 1974 and has not only been host to the world’s biggest events since, but is also an annual mainstay on both America’s Top-20 courseS and the World’s Top-50 courses lists. Another interesting fact: the name was inspired by Jack’s first British Open victory in 1966 at Muirfield in Scotland. As for how the course actually looks and plays, it is a 7392 yard, Par-72 track that is both visually stunning and extremely difficult. Narrow tree-lined fairways, lush green rough, small, sloped, guarded greens, elevation changes, you name it. This is one of the best and favourite courses for players and fans alike, which always results in a good field and good fan turnout.

They also apparently have world renowned milkshakes for the players at Muirfield. Sometimes it’s the little things.

Marquee Names: Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Tiger Woods

Field Changes

Scott Brown (alternate)
Matt Jones (sponsor)
Russell Knox (alternate)
Peter Malnati (sponsor)
Joaquin Niemann (sponsor)
Kelly Kraft (alternate)

Thorbjørn Olesen
Daniel Berger
Stewart Cink
Vijay Singh (playing on Champions Tour)
Kevin Na

Past Winners
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-15) Playoff
2017: Jason Dufner (-13)
2016: William McGirt (-15) Playoff

Multiple Wins:
Tiger Woods (5)
Kenny Perry (3)
Jack Nicklaus (2)
Greg Norman (2)
Tom Watson (2)
Hale Irwin (2)

– Justin Thomas makes first start in six weeks after being out with a wrist injury
– 23 of the Top-30 in FedEx Cup Rankings in the field
– Tiger Woods has won this event five times, but his 23rd last year was the first top-25 he’s had here since winning in 2012
– Jason Day is looking for his first top-ten in his adopted hometown

Narrowing Down the Field

Field Started with 120 Players
After Recent Form & Tournament History: Down to 64 Players

Factors for Spreadsheet: Odds, Recent Form, Tournament History, Recent Stats & 1000 Round Simulation (from all averaged to find an overall ranking


Matt Kuchar leads the way this week with pretty good odds to make some money (18/1). With good form in both his recent events and in tournament history, to go along with the 2nd highest chances to win via the simulation Kuchar stands out with an average rank of three across the five categories tested.

Sixth to 25th

Lots of big names in this range, including Tiger Woods (17th), Justin Thomas (13th) and Justin Rose (6th)

26th to 64th

Notables in this range include: Kevin Kisner (34th) and Phil Mickelson (43rd)

My Bets

Outright (To Win)
Matt Kuchar (18/1)
Rory McIlroy (9/1)
Patrick Cantlay (18/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (22/1)
Tony Finau (20/1)

Matt Kuchar vs Justin Thomas at -120
Emiliano Grillo vs Louis Oosthuizen at -105
Byeong Hun-An vs Andrew Putnam at -130

Top-Five: Five wins, 17 Top-Threes, 23/85 Top-Ten finishes
Matchups: 32-13-5 (64% Win Rate)

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