Field: 122 Players– Top 70 and Ties Make the Cut
Defending Champion: Justin Rose
Course: Colonial CC
Difficulty Rank: 20/51 in 2018
It may have changed names several times over the years but we’ve seen this event and this golf course for decades. Formerly the Fort Worth Invitational, the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, the Bank of America Invitational at Colonial, The Mastercard Invitational at Colonial, the Southwestern Bell Invitational at Colonial and the Dean and Deluca Invitational, the PGA Tour has been coming to Colonial since 1946. One of just five “Invitationals” left on Tour, the field is slightly less full than your normal week. 122 players will tee it up on Thursday in Texas.
Thankfully the field at the Charles Schwab Challenge wasn’t decimated by the 2019 schedule changes. At the moment it remains surprisingly good for a week after a major:
Justin Rose returns to defend his title along with Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Francesco Molinari, Kevin Kisner and Jordan Spieth.
Field Changes (As of Wednesday at 2:30 pm)
Strokes Gained: Approach
Par 4 Strokes Gained: 400-450 Yards
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Strokes Gained: Total
2018: Justin Rose (-20)
2017: Kevin Kisner (-10)
2016: Jordan Spieth (-17)
– One of the shortest courses on TOUR, Colonial puts a prime on approach shots and the short game. Add tiny greens to the mix and expect to see the winner be someone who gets hot with both the wedges and the putter.
– With only nine eagles generated between the two Par 5’s last season, being a bomber doesn’t provide the same advantage as it does most weeks.
– The toughest stretch of holes at Colonial, nicknamed “the Horrible Horseshoe” goes from holes three through five and will reek havoc on scorecards all week.
– Ben Hogan is the only player to win at Colonial in consecutive years, contributing to Colonial’s nickname of “Hogan’s Alley.” Justin Rose will look to join the back-to-back winners list after his victory at Colonial last season.
– As for the other end of the spectrum, the cut line has been over par the last five years; another indication that low scores won’t be too easy to come by.
Narrowing Down the Field
This week’s field started with: 122 Players
First eliminator: Recent Form
Players Eliminated: 51 – (Include Cameron Champ, Byeong Hun An & Martin Kaymer)
Remaining: 71 Players
Second Eliminator: Tournament History
Players Eliminated: 11 – (Include Patton Kizzire, Jim Furyk, Ollie Schneiderjans)
Remaining: 60 Players that could Win
Rest of Field put through entire spreadsheet (Odds, Form, Tournament History, Stats, Simulator, FedEx Rank)
My Top-5 to Win this Week
1) Justin Rose, 2) Jon Rahm, 3) Rickie Fowler, 4) Scott Piercy, 5) Paul Casey
My Rank: 6th-25th
Standout Players from 6-25
#6 Xander Schauffele (3rd in FedEx Rankings)
#13 Rory Sabbatini (2nd in Current Form)
#19 Jordan Spieth (1st Ranked in Course History)
My Rank: 26th-60th
Standout Players from 26-60
#34 Max Homa (8th Ranked in Current Form)
#35 Danny Lee (2nd Ranked in Course History)
#39 Kevin Na (5th in Simulator Rank)
Bets this Week
Justin Rose @ 11/1
Jon Rahm @ 11/1
Rickie Fowler @ 14/1
Scott Piercy @ 55/1
Paul Casey @ 28/1
Joel Dahmen (14th) vs Zach Johnson (42nd) Line: +115
Scott Piercy (4th) vs Matthew Fitzpatrick (22nd) Line: -105
Kevin Kisner (9th) vs Bryson DeChambeau (15th) Line: +130
My-Five: 5 Wins, 17 Top-Threes, 23/80 Top-Tens
Matchups: 30-13-4 (64% win rate)
My-Five: 1st, 8th, 2nd, 36th, 8th