Not that tournament handicapping is ever easy, but at most majors we can at least lean on current form, past performances at the venue, or a combination, for some sort of educated guess. Not at Erin Hills.
The bombers are expected to have an enormous advantage at a longer and wider-than-normal venue, but we just don’t really know who it will favor. Even putting is a mystery. With surfaces reportedly the “smoothest anyone has ever seen” on a U.S. Open course, will this just heighten the advantage of really good putters? Or Level out the playing field for everyone? Again, no one can say for sure.
Add this to some potential crazy winds, and its a tough test
However, if you do feel so inclined, here are the latest Betting Odds.
Dustin Johnson is, understandably the favourite. DJ finished second two years ago at Chambers Bay, and he won his first major last year at Oakmont
He is now listed as a 7/1 favorite
His closest competitors on the betting sheet are a trio of major winners:Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day, all listed at 12/1 odds.
While he has not yet formally withdrawn,Phil Mickelson has been taken off the board
And some of the other favorites this week:
- At 15/1: Jon Rahm
- 20/1:Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler
- 25/1:Hideki Matsuyama, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott
- 30/1:Henrik Stenson, Thomas Pieters, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka
- 40/1:Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen, Branden Grace
- 50/1:Matt Kuchar, Charl Schwartzel
- And if you’re feeling a longshot: At 150/1:Graeme McDowell, Brendan Steele, Charley Hoffman, Bernd Wiesberger, Bud Cauley
As for MY picks,I’ll break them down into Categories and list a top 3 for each
- Dustin Johnson – Quite simply, he is 1st in the world, he is 1st in both Driving Distance and GIR, and aside from a random MC a couple weeks ago, he is KILLING it this year. Throw in Three straight wins not too long ago, and a 1st/2nd finish in the last two US Opens – Hard to pass up DJ
- Jordan Spieth – 13th and 2nd in his last two events, 1st in Strokes Gained Approach on Tour, and has a strong combination of Birdie or Better % with Strong Bogey Avoidance. Doesn’t hit the ball the longest, so if it rains he will be at a disadvantage. But as long as he can keep his Driver in check, the rest of his game will overcome the lack of Distance. Plus we know he has the Mental side of the game needed for the Majors
- Sergio Garcia – He Finally got the monkey off his back. How will he respond? His last two starts are both Top-20’s, He has made all 8 Cuts this year, and he CRUSHES the Ball off the Tee. Long and (Usually) Straight. Its been repeated over and over that Length will be a big advantage this week. That, combined with a Top-10 GIR ranking, and Sergio is a good bet to contend
- Matt Kuchar – 7 Straight Cuts. 4th, 12th and 9th in his Last Three starts. Not the LONGEST off the tee, but Ranks really high in both Scrambling AND Strokes Gained Around the Green
- Kevin Kisner – In good form; 6th and 1st his Last Two starts. Ranks consistently high in all Important Stat categories this week, especially the All-important Strokes Gained Approach, where he ranks 9th and has actually improved significantly over the last month
- Francesco Molinari – 9 Straight Cuts Made. 24th and 2nd in Last two starts. Really good Driver of the golf ball; matches that with a Bunch of Birdies and the 2nd best SG: Approach Rank on Tour
- Jamie Lovemark – Made 7 Straight Cuts, 10th and 18th Place in Last two Starts. 20th in Driving Distance yet really good around the greens as well.
- Stewart Cink -10th, 25th, 10th in Last 3 Starts. Strong Long Iron player. Hits a ton of greens, and when he gets the Putter rolling; Look out
- Billy Horschel – Two Top-5’s in his last 4 Starts, including a win. Billy has just the type of game for this course, and has the Grinders Mentality to fare well in a US Open. Billy hits a lot of greens and minimizes his mistakes, making very few bogeys. That should come in handy around Erin Hills